Middle Eastern Journal of Disability Studies
Middle Eastern Journal of Disability Studies
Research code: 123148104206326212041162711590
1- Department of Counseling, Faculty of Humanities, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2- Farhangian University, Tehran, Iran
3- University of Tehran North Branch, Tehran, Iran
2- Farhangian University, Tehran, Iran
3- University of Tehran North Branch, Tehran, Iran
Abstract: (10 Views)
Abstract
Background & Objective
Iran is experiencing a rapid demographic transition toward an aging society, and projections indicate a substantial increase in the proportion of older adults by 2041. This transformation is expected to intensify the demand for psychological counseling and mental health services tailored to the needs of the elderly population. Simultaneously, advances in neuroscience, digital technologies, artificial intelligence, genetic sciences, and changing social expectations are reshaping the nature of counseling services worldwide. Despite these developments, the current elderly counseling system in Iran lacks a comprehensive future-oriented framework capable of responding to emerging opportunities and uncertainties. Previous studies have mainly focused on existing challenges of aging and mental health, while limited attention has been devoted to the future configuration of counseling services under changing social, technological, economic, environmental, and political conditions. Therefore, strategic foresight is necessary to support long-term planning and policy development in this field. The present study aimed to identify the key drivers shaping the future of elderly counseling in Iran and to develop plausible scenarios for guiding policymaking, professional education, and service planning toward the 1420 (2041) horizon.
Methods
This applied qualitative study adopted a futures studies approach based on the STEEP framework (Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, and Political dimensions). Data were collected through targeted documentary analysis, semi-structured interviews, and cross-impact/uncertainty questionnaires. The study population consisted of experts in counseling, geriatric psychology, health policy, and futures studies. Using purposive and snowball sampling methods, 21 specialists with substantial academic or professional experience in elderly mental health were selected. Data analysis was conducted through thematic coding, cross-impact matrix analysis, and scenario development using Scenario Wizard software. Initially, 137 concepts were extracted and reduced to 75 preliminary drivers. Through expert evaluation and impact–uncertainty assessment, 41 consolidated drivers were identified. Subsequently, 13 key drivers with the highest levels of influence and uncertainty were selected for scenario construction. To ensure the trustworthiness of findings, methodological triangulation, member checking, expert review, and intercoder reliability procedures were employed. The scenario-building process followed the Godet and Roubel futures methodology, integrating qualitative interpretation with quantitative cross-impact analysis.
Results
The findings identified thirteen key drivers expected to shape the future of elderly counseling in Iran. These drivers included the expansion of brain-based theories, diversification of service demands, transformation of counseling delivery models, emergence of innovative therapeutic approaches, adaptation to irreversible psychological conditions, development of genetics-based theories, increased data production and analytics, expansion of career counseling services for older adults, improvement of counselor education, declining reliance on psychoanalytic approaches, growth of cross-cultural therapeutic interventions, increasing importance of social insurance coverage, and intensified competition among counseling centers. Cross-impact analysis demonstrated strong interdependencies among these drivers and highlighted the critical role of technological and policy-related uncertainties in shaping future developments. Based on the interaction patterns of the key drivers, Scenario Wizard generated three internally coherent and highly plausible scenarios. The first scenario, “Counseling Reengineering,” described a technology-driven transformation characterized by artificial intelligence, digital platforms, and personalized counseling services. The second scenario, “Transformative Counseling,” represented a transitional model in which traditional and technology-based approaches coexist. The third scenario, “New Counseling System,” depicted a balanced integration of human-centered counseling, advanced technologies, preventive interventions, and supportive policy frameworks. Expert validation demonstrated high levels of credibility and internal consistency for all scenarios, with the “New Counseling System” (mean score = 6.86) and “Counseling Reengineering” (mean score = 6.18) receiving the highest evaluation scores.
Conclusion
The results indicate that the future of elderly counseling in Iran will be strongly influenced by technological innovation, evolving therapeutic paradigms, educational reforms, and supportive social policies. Strategic planning for the coming decades should prioritize the development of specialized training programs, expansion of digital counseling infrastructure, promotion of equitable access to services, enhancement of ethical and data-protection regulations, and strengthening of insurance support for elderly mental health services. The proposed scenarios provide evidence-based pathways for policymakers, educators, and practitioners to move from reactive service provision toward proactive and future-oriented systems capable of meeting the complex needs of Iran’s aging population.
Keywords: Aging, Elderly Counseling, Futures Studies, Scenario Planning, Key Drivers, STEEP Framework, Mental Health, Strategic Planning, Counseling Services, Iran.
Background & Objective
Iran is experiencing a rapid demographic transition toward an aging society, and projections indicate a substantial increase in the proportion of older adults by 2041. This transformation is expected to intensify the demand for psychological counseling and mental health services tailored to the needs of the elderly population. Simultaneously, advances in neuroscience, digital technologies, artificial intelligence, genetic sciences, and changing social expectations are reshaping the nature of counseling services worldwide. Despite these developments, the current elderly counseling system in Iran lacks a comprehensive future-oriented framework capable of responding to emerging opportunities and uncertainties. Previous studies have mainly focused on existing challenges of aging and mental health, while limited attention has been devoted to the future configuration of counseling services under changing social, technological, economic, environmental, and political conditions. Therefore, strategic foresight is necessary to support long-term planning and policy development in this field. The present study aimed to identify the key drivers shaping the future of elderly counseling in Iran and to develop plausible scenarios for guiding policymaking, professional education, and service planning toward the 1420 (2041) horizon.
Methods
This applied qualitative study adopted a futures studies approach based on the STEEP framework (Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, and Political dimensions). Data were collected through targeted documentary analysis, semi-structured interviews, and cross-impact/uncertainty questionnaires. The study population consisted of experts in counseling, geriatric psychology, health policy, and futures studies. Using purposive and snowball sampling methods, 21 specialists with substantial academic or professional experience in elderly mental health were selected. Data analysis was conducted through thematic coding, cross-impact matrix analysis, and scenario development using Scenario Wizard software. Initially, 137 concepts were extracted and reduced to 75 preliminary drivers. Through expert evaluation and impact–uncertainty assessment, 41 consolidated drivers were identified. Subsequently, 13 key drivers with the highest levels of influence and uncertainty were selected for scenario construction. To ensure the trustworthiness of findings, methodological triangulation, member checking, expert review, and intercoder reliability procedures were employed. The scenario-building process followed the Godet and Roubel futures methodology, integrating qualitative interpretation with quantitative cross-impact analysis.
Results
The findings identified thirteen key drivers expected to shape the future of elderly counseling in Iran. These drivers included the expansion of brain-based theories, diversification of service demands, transformation of counseling delivery models, emergence of innovative therapeutic approaches, adaptation to irreversible psychological conditions, development of genetics-based theories, increased data production and analytics, expansion of career counseling services for older adults, improvement of counselor education, declining reliance on psychoanalytic approaches, growth of cross-cultural therapeutic interventions, increasing importance of social insurance coverage, and intensified competition among counseling centers. Cross-impact analysis demonstrated strong interdependencies among these drivers and highlighted the critical role of technological and policy-related uncertainties in shaping future developments. Based on the interaction patterns of the key drivers, Scenario Wizard generated three internally coherent and highly plausible scenarios. The first scenario, “Counseling Reengineering,” described a technology-driven transformation characterized by artificial intelligence, digital platforms, and personalized counseling services. The second scenario, “Transformative Counseling,” represented a transitional model in which traditional and technology-based approaches coexist. The third scenario, “New Counseling System,” depicted a balanced integration of human-centered counseling, advanced technologies, preventive interventions, and supportive policy frameworks. Expert validation demonstrated high levels of credibility and internal consistency for all scenarios, with the “New Counseling System” (mean score = 6.86) and “Counseling Reengineering” (mean score = 6.18) receiving the highest evaluation scores.
Conclusion
The results indicate that the future of elderly counseling in Iran will be strongly influenced by technological innovation, evolving therapeutic paradigms, educational reforms, and supportive social policies. Strategic planning for the coming decades should prioritize the development of specialized training programs, expansion of digital counseling infrastructure, promotion of equitable access to services, enhancement of ethical and data-protection regulations, and strengthening of insurance support for elderly mental health services. The proposed scenarios provide evidence-based pathways for policymakers, educators, and practitioners to move from reactive service provision toward proactive and future-oriented systems capable of meeting the complex needs of Iran’s aging population.
Keywords: Aging, Elderly Counseling, Futures Studies, Scenario Planning, Key Drivers, STEEP Framework, Mental Health, Strategic Planning, Counseling Services, Iran.
Keywords: Aging, Elderly Counseling, Futures Studies, Scenario Planning, Key Drivers, STEEP Framework, Mental Health, Strategic Planning, Counseling Services, Iran.
Type of Study: Original Research Article |
Subject:
Psychology
Send email to the article author
| Rights and permissions | |
 |
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. |